What if the U.S. economy is already sprinting off a cliff—and just hasn’t looked down yet? In this riveting conversation, BCA Research’s Peter Berezin joins Pierre Daillie to unpack whether markets are living through their Wile E. Coyote moment: running on optimism while gravity—the reality of stagflation, slowing growth, and political interference—waits below.

🎙️ Episode Summary

In this episode of Insight Is Capital, BCA Research’s Chief Global Strategist Peter Berezin offers a sobering yet strategic take on today’s markets. From stagflation and tariffs to AI hype and fiscal fragility, Berezin breaks down why the next 12–18 months could reshape everything investors think they know about “soft landings.” He discusses:

• Why stagflation risk is rising as inflation edges higher and employment weakens.
• How political meddling and trillion-dollar deficits could push the Fed into impossible choices.
• Why the housing market, not GDP, is the clearest gauge of monetary pain.
• Where investors can still find safety—in gold, yen, defense, and healthcare—and why “waiting to see the whites of the recession’s eyes” might be the smartest move right now.
• Plus: the AI paradox—huge promise, uncertain profits, and eerie echoes of the 2000 tech crash.

⏱️ Timestamped Chapters

00:00 – Introduction: Meet Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research

01:40 – Recession or stagflation? Reading the early signals

04:00 – The Fed’s bind: inflation vs. employment

06:00 – Housing market pain and weak consumption growth

08:30 – Rate cuts, long yields, and the risk of a policy trap

11:00 – Stagflation now, inflation later: Berezin’s 2-phase macro outlook

13:00 – Tariffs, reshoring, and corporate paralysis amid policy fog

16:00 – Trade disruption and the tariff mess

17:30 – Markets mispricing rate cuts: déjà vu from 2001 & 2008

19:00 – Global allocation: dollar weakness, gold strength, and fiscal cliffs

22:00 – Defensive positioning: “wait for the whites of the recession’s eyes”

25:00 – Currency debasement and why inflation is a political problem

28:00 – Strategic diversifiers: defense, healthcare, and copper

31:00 – Fixed-income strategy: “cash is king,” for now

36:00 – AI and productivity: hype, lag, and parallels to the dot-com era

44:00 – Free cash flow as the real warning sign for tech investors

47:00 – Final thoughts: the Wile E. Coyote moment for markets

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