A security expert warns that Canberra is betting on a partner reluctant to defend its primacy in Asia.

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As Canada and European countries search for greater independence from the United States, Australia is moving in the opposite direction, accelerating its military integration with Washington. That stands in contrast even to neighboring New Zealand, whose strategy has been to keep its head down and avoid attracting attention.

To examine that dependence, I invited Sam Roggeveen, director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute, a leading Australian think tank, onto the latest episode of The Diplomacy Podcast. He argues that the country can defend itself without relying on U.S. help.

Australian public opinion reveals a striking contradiction. According to Lowy’s latest poll, confidence in the United States to act responsibly in the world has fallen to a record-low 31 percent, and only 21 percent of Australians trust Trump to do the right thing in international affairs.

Yet 73 percent still consider the U.S. alliance important to Australian security, while 68 percent support acquiring nuclear-powered submarines through AUKUS, a security partnership between Australia, Britain and the United States.

Roggeveen said that Canberra’s continued dependence on Washington reflects a failure to recognize that the decline of U.S. power and commitment in the Asia-Pacific began long before Trump and will continue after he leaves office. He warned that Canberra is betting on an increasingly unreliable partner reluctant to defend its primacy in the region.

He questioned whether Washington would risk a catastrophic war with China to preserve its position — or to defend Taiwan. And if a war were to break out, he doubts the United States would win it.

We also discussed Australia’s economic interdependence with China, the possibility that Trump could pressure Canberra to restrict exports to Beijing and the country’s diplomatic efforts to strengthen its position among Pacific island nations and with Indonesia.

To hear his analysis, watch or listen to the episode above — or on one of these platforms: YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.

As always, my guest’s opinions don’t necessarily represent my own views.

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