Global trade is increasingly being shaped by geopolitics rather than economics alone. In this episode of Trade Links, host Tim Phillips is joined by Aastha Gupta and Scott Livingstone to examine two stories that illustrate this shift.

First, the panel explores the rise of the so-called shadow fleet – a network of vessels transporting sanctioned oil from countries including Russia, Iran and Venezuela. What began as a workaround to sanctions has evolved into a parallel shipping system that now carries a meaningful share of global crude exports. The discussion looks at how these networks operate, why they have proven so resilient, and what tougher enforcement by European governments could mean for global trade.

The conversation then turns to ASML, the Dutch company whose lithography machines sit at the heart of advanced semiconductor manufacturing. 

Following US concerns that one of ASML’s most sophisticated machines may have reached China, the panel discusses why these machines have become strategic geopolitical assets, how export controls are reshaping global technology markets, and why governments increasingly view supply chains as instruments of national power.

Together, the two stories highlight a common theme: the fragmentation of the global trading system, where commercial decisions are increasingly influenced by security, technology and geopolitical competition.

What to watch

US trade policy: With several important deadlines approaching, the next phase of US tariff and trade policy could have significant implications for global commerce.

EU-China trade relations: European policymakers are increasingly debating how to respond to rising imports from China and the long-term competitiveness of European manufacturing, with important policy decisions expected later this year.

Speakers

Host: Tim Phillips
Guests: Aastha Gupta (European Economist)
Scott Livingstone (International Advisor)

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This episode was recorded on 17 July 2026.

All details correct at time of recording.

For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.html

Please view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html