Bond yields are moving, markets are reacting, and the relationship between the bond market and share prices is back in focus. This week, Isaac Poole (Chief Investment Officer, Ascalon Capital) and Andrew Coleman (Teaminvest) join host Nadine Blayney to explain why.

Isaac starts with the risk-free rate, the yield that almost every other asset is priced off, and shows how a higher yield flows into equity valuations, credit spreads and currencies. Andrew describes how years of near-free money gave way to a world where capital is scarcer, and why that matters for investors who want seven or eight per cent on their money.

Together they cover the two mathematical reasons shares feel the pull of bond yields, the forces driving yields higher (inflation expectations, a term premium, fiscal deficits and crowding out), and the labour market signal that could mark the top.

In the second half, Andrew looks at which kinds of business are most exposed when borrowing costs rise, which barely notice, and why second-order thinking can reverse the obvious conclusion. The episode closes with a viewer question from Lisa: when a share price has run well ahead of the fundamentals, how do you decide what to do?

If you invest on your own, this is a clear, jargon-free look at why one number sits beneath so many prices, and how patient investors can use a period of repricing to judge the quality of what they own and to ask sharper questions about the debt, competition and demand behind every holding.

Segments and key moments

– 00:00:00 Welcome, guests and why bond yields matter

– 00:02:53 What is happening in bond markets now

– 00:03:59 Opportunity cost: 2021 versus today

– 00:06:04 Earnings yield versus bond yield

– 00:06:22 How the risk-free rate drives valuation models

– 00:07:43 The same effect in the housing market

– 00:08:25 What is driving yields higher

– 00:10:17 Bonds versus equities: why it depends

– 00:11:37 Creative destruction and zombie companies

– 00:14:38 The signal to watch: the labour market

– 00:15:40 Who benefits as yields rise?

– 00:21:59 Second-order thinking: a surprising beneficiary

– 00:24:00 Who is exposed: retail, property and private credit

– 00:26:59 Viewer question: when a share price runs too far

Subscribe, leave a review, and send your questions to [email protected]. Learn more about value investing at teaminvest.com.au 

🎧 Available on [YouTube](https://youtube.com/@teaminvest2007?si=Du-CVL6yVR40ZryF), [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/teaminvest-wealth-builders/id1811489508) and [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/71dSg1DgpesFF5TcaUsM1j?si=ade33c5f74bb4208).

🎙️ Enjoyed this episode?

Don't forget to subscribe, rate, and leave a review on your favourite podcast platform. It helps us grow and reach more Wealth Builders like you.

💡 More Teaminvest:

For more insights into Teaminvest's disciplined, research-driven approach to investing, visit our [website](https://www.teaminvest.com.au/) and learn how to become part of our investor community.

Follow us on: [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/company/teaminvestaus) | [YouTube](https://youtube.com/@teaminvest2007) | [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/teaminvest_aus) | [Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/teaminvestaus)

📩 Join the conversation

Have thoughts or questions? Email us at [email protected]

General information only. Not financial product advice. Teaminvest Pty Ltd, part of TIP Group (AFSL 334339). 

🎧 Available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 

🎙️ Enjoyed this episode? 

Don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and leave a review on your favourite podcast platform. It helps us grow and reach more Wealth Builders like you.

💡 More Teaminvest:

For more insights into Teaminvest’s disciplined, research-driven approach to investing, visit our website and learn how to become part of our investor community. 

Follow us on: LinkedIn | YouTube | Instagram | Facebook

📩  Join the conversation

Have thoughts or questions? Email us at [email protected]