Lebanon is having a moment, people! After decades of successive government failures, Hezbollah’s stranglehold on the country, and Iran pulling the strings of its very own “Party of God” terrorist army — complete with missiles tucked behind hospitals and under UN posts — there may finally be a window. Trump picked up the phone, brokered a ceasefire (for now), and told Netanyahu and Lebanon’s new president to get in a room, which could help the President in negotiations with Iran. Whether this is an Abraham Accords moment or just a diplomatic sugar high remains to be seen, but we’ll take it.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz standoff continues to be both entirely about nuclear leverage and somehow also not about that at all — depending on which hour of the day you’re reading the president’s Truth Social feed. The Saudis, bless them, are quietly rerouting their pipelines and taking the wind out of Iran’s sails. Literally.

And Orban lost! The man who turned Hungary into MAGA’s favorite field trip destination — who got CPAC, JD Vance, and a Trump phone-in rally — got voted out. Turns out gutting democratic institutions is fine until the economy tanks and people actually have to live there. Who knew.

Bottom lines: Lebanon has a window, but don’t redecorate yet. Iran negotiations are murky and the Strait is murkier. Orban is out, but the MAGA-Hungary romance tells us something interesting about where Vance wants to take this party by 2028. And Pete Hegseth quoted Pulp Fiction thinking it was scripture. We can’t make this up.

A final note for this week

We know a lot of people spend their days doom-scrolling and venting about the politics of the moment — and honestly, sometimes we do too.

What we try to offer here is something different: a dispassionate look at the administration’s foreign policies, the week’s news, and the geopolitical forces shaping what comes next. Despite having plenty of our own outrage, we’ll leave that to everyone else — understanding the forces at play feels a lot more useful than preaching to the choir.

We don’t always agree, but we disagree agreeably — with respect, some experience, and occasionally some humor. We hope our community appreciates what we’re trying to build here. And if this isn’t your thing, no hard feelings — there are thousands of other Substacks out there to scratch your particular itch. We do hope to see you next week!

Preamble, A slap in the face for the right

Cosmopolitics Live with Steven Cook

#WTH The Hormuz blockade, and podcast with Miad Maleki

#WTH A ceasefire with Hezbollah, for now,

Cosmopolitics, Ceasefire selfies in the Strait,

For those interest in energy, read this Substack by Robert Bryce

Vice President JD Vance speech to Turning Point

Hegseth quoting the “bible” sure does sound a lot like the Pulp Fiction version

Thank you Cash Flow Collective, Marcie Alexander, Herman Jacobs, Sanlugonena@25, and many others for tuning into my live video with Danielle Pletka! Join me for my next live video in the app.

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