Dive deep into the turbulent world of U.S. energy with MacroMatrix! This episode unpacks the immense pressures facing producers like Diamondback Energy. We explore a complex web of global economic uncertainty, rising OPEC+ supply, and stubbornly low oil prices pushing the U.S. oil market to a ”tipping point.”

Discover how the shale industry's evolution, from growth-at-all-costs to a focus on free cash flow, is being tested. With geologic headwinds now outweighing technological gains and inflation-adjusted oil prices near historic lows, Diamondback’s CEO warns U.S. onshore production may have peaked and could decline this quarter.

We dissect the ”drill baby drill” paradox of U.S. policy, the impact of steel tariffs on well costs, and the worrying signs of a slowdown, like falling frac crew and rig counts. Tracy notes Permian breakevens around $62/bbl, while forecasts eye prices significantly lower, posing a ”capex conundrum.” How is Diamondback navigating this with capex cuts, a $37 corporate breakeven, yet a warning of output declines below $60 WTI? Learn about their strategy amid recession fears, international oversupply risks, and OPEC+'s surprising production hikes.

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