Hardpoints kicks off the new year with Mike and Neal swapping quick holiday stories—family downtime, e-bikes, skiing attempts—and then diving into a headline-dominating geopolitical event: Operation Absolute Resolve, a rapid U.S. special operations raid that allegedly captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife and brought them to the U.S. for prosecution. They unpack the whiplash of the operation’s tactical competence versus the strategic, legal, and moral chaos it creates—debating whether it’s clearly illegal under international law, murkier under U.S. law, and undeniably damaging to public trust in a civilian-controlled military when Congress is bypassed.
They then shift to energy implications: Venezuela’s enormous reserves, near-term production uncertainty, and the idea that oil markets may not meaningfully benefit unless price and investment conditions align. The conversation explores motives beyond the stated “drugs” rationale—leaning toward oil interests, strongman politics, and spheres-of-influence thinking (Monroe Doctrine vibes, BRICS realignment, and implications for Russia/China/Iran influence in the Western Hemisphere). The biggest worry: the precedent this sets for global stability, especially Ukraine and Taiwan.
In the back half, they pivot to the startup economy: layoffs, constrained fundraising, and a market that’s “selective but alive.” Mike notes climate tech is still tougher than the 2020–2021 boom, while AI is absorbing capital and reshaping what software businesses even are—pushing toward automation, fewer humans in workflows, and potentially long-term pressure on employment. They close with “goods/bads/others,” including burnout recovery, Colorado’s alarming lack of snow, concerns about rule-of-law erosion, and anger over reported retaliation against a prominent veteran-politician, ending on a sober note about institutions, accountability, and what comes next.