Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US and Iran announced that a peace deal has been agreed. Putin acknowledged that Ukraine’s strikes on Russian territory are harming Russia’s economy.

• Before 2027, will a ceasefire (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine be agreed for a period longer than 3 days? Our forecasters give this a 26% (20% to 40%) probability.

• Before August 2026, will a US-Iran peace deal be signed, involving a cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping (with or without a toll system)? Our forecasters think there’s a 76% (70% to 85%) chance.

Technology and AI: Anthropic’s Fable 5 model was released to the general public, before access was revoked for everyone after the US government imposed export controls. The US’s Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) was barred from publishing model assessments.

• Will access to Anthropic’s Fable 5 model be restored to the US general public before July 2026? Our forecasters are broadly uncertain, giving this a 64% (50% to 75%) chance.

• If so, will non-US citizens residing in Europe gain access to it again? Our forecasters are fairly confident about […]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(03:28) Geopolitics

(03:31) Middle East

(04:30) Europe

(05:02) Technology and artificial intelligence

(08:42) Biorisk

(10:19) Economy

(10:49) Nature and climate

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First published:
June 15th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-imposes-export

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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