Executive summary

Technology and AI: A Chinese open-source AI company is delaying the release of model weights for the first time, citing cyber risks. Anthropic won’t release what it calls “Model 2”. Bernie Sanders says the US Senate could force US companies to pause AI development.

• Will the US Senate succeed in pausing AI development in the US before 2029, absent a treaty with China? Our forecasters think there’s a 5.2% (2% to 10%) chance, which rises to 19% (12% to 30%) conditional on a treaty.

• Will a Google DeepMind model be among the top 3 models at the end of 2026, according to Epoch’s capability index? Forecasters believe there’s a 9.6% (5% to 15%) probability.

Geopolitics: Trump ordered US participation in joint military exercises with South Korea to be cut. Poland says it thwarted a Russian plot to kill an American citizen in Warsaw. Trump threatened to declare the Strait of Hormuz part of US territory.

• What is the largest number of deaths (civilian and/or military) that Russia will inflict in a NATO country in a single incident before August 15, 2027? Our forecasters’ 90% confidence interval is 0 to 20, with the […]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(02:40) Technology and artificial intelligence

(07:48) Geopolitics

(07:51) Middle East

(08:46) United States

(09:13) Europe

(12:02) Latin America

(12:14) Asia

(14:11) Oceania

(14:21) Africa

(16:13) Economy

(16:53) Biorisk

(17:59) Climate and Nature

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First published:
August 17th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/chinese-company-delays-release-of

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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