Executive summary

We’re a group of top forecasters who parse millions of news pieces a week to identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you. Here are our top items and forecasts for this week

• Geopolitics: The US proposes a peace plan favorable to Russia, and Ukraine and the EU push back. US military activities around Venezuela continue.

  • Forecasters believe there’s a 25% chance (20% to 30%) that face-to-face negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials will happen before February 2026, and a 26% chance (15% to 40%) that both Russia and Ukraine will announce that they have agreed to a ceasefire of any duration, covering all of Ukrainian and Russian territory, by the end of March 2026.

  • They estimate that there’s a 71% chance (42% to 85%) that the US military carries out an attack on Venezuelan territory before 2026, and a 51% chance (20% to 70%) that Maduro will still be in power in Venezuela at the end of March 2026.

• Tech and AI: The Trump administration wants to restrict the ability of individual US states to regulate AI. Gemini 3 was released. We updated […]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:45) Geopolitics

(02:48) Europe

(05:35) The Americas

(05:37) Latin America

(08:39) United States

(09:26) Middle East

(10:37) Asia

(10:46) Technology and artificial intelligence

(14:26) Economy

(15:29) Biorisks

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First published:
November 24th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ukraine-peace-plan-us-continues-activity

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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