Robin Hanson — Social scientist & futurist — The universe looks empty for a reason, and the real “Great Filter” might be a quiet world government that stops humanity from ever expanding.

In this uncut conversation we discuss:
• The Great Filter explained simply—and why even a “small” filter ahead is terrifying
• Why “quiet aliens” are possible, but big civilizations can’t stay hidden for long
• The most plausible future filter: competent world government that bans expansion
• Futarchy: using prediction markets to make policy decisions better than politicians
• The Age of Em: brain emulations, AI civilizations, and why Robin expects a civilizational fall first

00:00 – Welcome & going straight to aliens
00:51 – Fermi Paradox + the Great Filter (explained simply)
04:37 – Could advanced civilizations hide from us?
06:27 – Is the filter ahead of us or behind us?
09:23 – “Grabby aliens” & what we can infer from an empty sky
10:09 – Extinction vs collapse: why permanent failure matters
14:12 – The most likely future filter: a world government that blocks expansion
27:09 – Futarchy explained: governance by prediction markets
42:31 – Applying futarchy to cities & countries (property values, citizenship, national welfare)
55:31 – Top criticisms of futarchy (hypocrisy, selection bias, metrics) + responses
1:10:52 – The Age of Em: brain emulations & a concrete path to “AI”
1:23:26 – Why Robin is more pessimistic now: cultural drift & civilizational decline

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