On The Markets
On The Markets
Podcast Description
Understanding the stock market and economy probably wasn’t on your bucket list when you were a kid, when you graduated high school or even today 😂. And yet there it is, day after day, looming in the background and affecting real life events for you and your family, good and bad. Why’d it go up? When’s it going down? Wait, is “the market” actually much bigger than just 500 US stocks? It’s complicated. And they make it complicated on purpose! On The Markets gives context to complexity. A stock market and economy show in plain English. Hosted by Fermata Advisors co-founders Daren Blonski CFP® AIF®, Chris Sipes CFP ® AIF®, podcast host Dano Weir and more. The team shares the weekly economic, governmental and technical inputs that may be affecting the performance outputs in your portfolio, tax situation and more. Powered by the brands of Fermata Advisors, including Sonoma Wealth, Fermata 401k and Fermata Tax.
Podcast Insights
Content Themes
The show covers a variety of topics related to the stock market and economic trends, including tariffs, consumer sentiment, federal reserve policies, and international market performance, with recent episodes discussing the impacts of tariffs on the market and the relationship between consumer sentiment and stock prices.
Understanding the stock market and economy probably wasn’t on your bucket list when you were a kid, when you graduated high school or even today 😂. And yet there it is, day after day, looming in the background and affecting real life events for you and your family, good and bad.
Why’d it go up?
When’s it going down?
Wait, is “the market” actually much bigger than just 500 US stocks?
It’s complicated. And they make it complicated on purpose!
On The Markets gives context to complexity. A stock market and economy show in plain English. Hosted by Fermata Advisors co-founders Daren Blonski CFP® AIF®, Chris Sipes CFP ® AIF®, podcast host Dano Weir and more. The team shares the weekly economic, governmental and technical inputs that may be affecting the performance outputs in your portfolio, tax situation and more.
Powered by the brands of Fermata Advisors, including Sonoma Wealth, Fermata 401k and Fermata Tax, headquartered in Sonoma, California with offices across Northern California in Santa Rosa, San Rafael, Auburn and Chico.
The September jobs report came in well short of expectations, and stocks rose anyway. On The Markets this week looks at why a weaker payroll print pushed the odds of an October Fed hike lower, and why that still leaves mortgages above 7% and the 10-year near 5.2%.
This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir:
• Market was flat for the week? Don’t look under the hood…
• Worried about a divided house, senate and executive branch? How have markets performed historically during periods of divided government?
Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/NRy6VpHN2b4
Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis
CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro: This Week’s Topics
1:42 AI Thumbnails and the Algorithm
3:15 Midterms: S&P 500 Returns After Elections
5:23 Divided Government and Annual Returns
6:33 Sentiment: AAII, Fear and Greed, Bitcoin
7:26 Treasury Rates: The Story of the Year
9:09 Rates as a Hurdle Rate
9:48 Inflation Sensitivity and 2022 Returns
11:24 Growth and Inflation Regimes
13:42 Bonds, 2008 and Deflation
14:20 Starbucks Closures and 2008 Echoes
15:10 Recency Bias and Market Timing
17:00 75% of S&P 500 Stocks Down in September
17:22 Real Estate Affordability
19:02 A Beckett Real Estate Market
19:37 The Wealth Effect
20:24 Equal Weight vs. Cap Weight S&P 500
21:57 Equal Weight’s Weekly Losing Streak
22:29 Bilello on the Bond Market Drawdown
24:08 Bonds vs. European Stocks
25:33 Household Wealth Led by Equities
26:16 Average Up Year vs. Average Down Year
27:16 The U.S. Equity Risk Premium
28:58 Why Rates Are Rising: Deficits
30:02 AI Hyperscaler Borrowing
30:29 Does Presidential Style Move Bonds?
32:11 Chris on Bonds as Loans
33:26 Oil and the 10-Year Treasury
34:03 Nominal GDP Growth
34:31 PCE Inflation
35:25 Unemployment Rate at 4.2%
36:17 Unemployment Below 5%: Historical Context
37:33 Do the Jobs Numbers Add Up?
39:13 Why Stocks Rose on a Weak Jobs Report
40:53 Technicals: S&P 500 Heat Map
41:39 Big Tech Supporting the Index
43:02 RSP vs. SPY: Market Breadth
43:41 Small Caps: IWM vs. SPY
44:34 Emerging and Developed Markets
45:22 Stocks Above the 50-Day Average
46:03 Stocks Above the 200-Day Average
47:01 VIX and MOVE Volatility Check
47:41 High-Yield Debt Appetite
48:22 Discretionary vs. Staples
49:45 The 2-Year, 10-Year and Mortgages
50:57 Daren on Oil’s $80 to $100 Range
51:51 Gold Near $4,000
52:06 Bitcoin Chart Check
52:46 Daren’s Base Case for Year-End
53:21 Jobless Claims and Personal Income
53:43 30-Year Mortgage Rates Near 7.2%
54:51 Chart Check: Tractor Supply
56:30 The COVID Homesteading Boom
58:49 Chart Check: FICO and AI Disruption
1:00:13 Disney and Customer Experience
1:00:49 Peter Lynch: Buy What You Know
1:01:43 Falling in Love With a Stock
1:03:27 Wrapping Up
References:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm h
ttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html https://schwabnetwork.com/articles/closing-bell-stocks-rally-as-weak-jobs-report-cuts-fed-hike-odds https://x.com/mikezaccardi/status/2104539369046442130 https://x.com/mikezaccardi/status/2104537608596475916 https://x.com/barchart/status/2105412942531338290 https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2105400135970631839 https://x.com/Barchart/status/2105449669639762041 https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2105299184756650273 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61984 https://x.com/barchart/status/2104841143699530044 https://x.com/rbadvisors/status/2105290749390790678 https://ycharts.com https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026 https://x.com/charliebilello/status/2106041060354924917 https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-average-728
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