It’s been a minute. Marko and Jacob are back after a long gap, and not much has changed: the Hormuz standoff drags on, the war in Ukraine grinds forward, and the stock market shrugged it all off. Marko argues freedom of navigation was always empire’s marketing slogan. Jacob pushes back on why Israel keeps mattering more than his own theory allows. The cousins disagree about Russia’s next move, but what’s new?

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) – Welcome Back Cousins!

(00:53) – Same Old Geopolitics

(01:43) – Hormuz Deal Rumors

(02:26) – Markets Ignore War

(03:34) – No Total War Thesis

(08:12) – Kinetic Activity Debate

(09:56) – Pipelines Undercut Iran

(13:45) – AI Bubble vs Oil Risk

(18:24) – Tolls and China Advantage

(22:44) – Freedom of Navigation Rant

(30:05) – Geography vs Technology

(36:54) – Pivot to Russia Ukraine

(39:07) – Wars Find Equilibrium

(41:04) – Ukraine War Normalized

(41:55) – Drones Hit Russia Home

43:46) – NATO Targets Warning

(45:08) – Black Sea Price Shock

(46:57) – Iran US New Equilibrium

(49:25) – Ukraine Breaks Stalemate

(52:35) – Putin Leverage Options

(55:48) – Spice Alliance Limits

(58:22) – Why West Hates Iran

(01:00:43) – Cold War Origins

(01:03:44) – Israel Alliance Reframed

(01:07:30) – Mandela Versus Arafat

(01:13:49) – Netanyahu Pulls Trump

(01:16:16) – Israel Utility Not Sympathy

(01:20:19) – Israel Should Deal Iran

(01:22:23) – Closing Thoughts

—

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

—

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site:jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter:x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

—

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter:www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin:https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter:https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA:https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro