Pitch The PM
Pitch The PM
Podcast Description
In these regularly scheduled podcast episodes, experience the leading edge of deep equity research, analysis, and strategy. Discover actionable strategies and practical applications, such as integrating AI into the investment process.
Pitch the PM is hosted by Doug Garber, a former Citadel Analyst and Millennium Portfolio Manager. Doug ranked as a top 5 analyst and alpha generator twice while at Citadel. He then built and led a multi-sector, multi-strategy team at Millennium.
Podcast Insights
Content Themes
The podcast focuses on advanced investment strategies, deep equity research, and thorough analysis. Episodes cover specific investment opportunities and reverse engineer successful investment theses, such as examining Pool Corp's business model and revenue prospects post-COVID, and evaluating Zoom's transition from a single-product company to an enterprise platform as growth catalysts.
In these regularly scheduled podcast episodes, experience the leading edge of deep equity research, analysis, and strategy. Discover actionable strategies and practical applications, such as integrating AI into the investment process.
Pitch the PM is hosted by Doug Garber, a former Citadel Analyst and Millennium Portfolio Manager. Doug ranked as a top 5 analyst and alpha generator twice while at Citadel. He then built and led a multi-sector, multi-strategy team at Millennium.
Welcome to Pitch The PM where host Doug Garber is joined by Gil Luria, Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson for a deep-dive on NVDA.
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In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug and Gil candidly debate where Nvidia is in the GPU cycle, how Nvidia came to dominate the advanced chip market and what the road map looks like for advanced chip supply and demand. Gil outlines the current state of the industry for GPU chips that is in short supply and how the behavior of some key customers, like Microsoft, might be shifting to focus on returns over growth.
The discussion goes into depth on hyperscaler capabilities to manufacture their own chips and their plans to reduce their dependence on Nvidia. Gil believes that Nvidia’s customer capex growth has reached its peak and this could also impact NVDA if other buyers cannot fill-in to support the street’s high expected growth.
They also examine Nvidia’s valuation, competitive advantages and the shifting dynamics of AI hardware spending, breaking down how Wall Street could be overestimating future growth. Gil’s thesis centers on the idea that Nvidia’s hypergrowth is transitioning to modest growth and then forecasts a decline in 2026 CY revenue. Gil discusses how this could surprise the street and might lead to a lower valuation multiple. Please see the episode for D.A. Davidson disclosures.
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Gill Luria is the Head Technology Research for D.A Davidson, where he’s worked for the past 8 years. Previously he was the Director of Research at Wedbush. Gil worked as a consultant at Deloitte and a research associate at Sanford Bernstein. He earned a degree in economics from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an MBA in Finance from Colombia Business School.
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Chapters:
00:00 – Introduction to Nvidia & DA Davidson
01:45 – Gil Luria’s Background & Approach to Tech Research
03:20 – How Nvidia Became the AI Dominator
06:15 – Bull vs. Bear: The Core Debate on Nvidia’s Future
11:10 – Hyperscaler AI Spending – Is CapEx Peaking?
16:45 – Big Tech’s AI Chip Strategy – A Real Threat to Nvidia?
22:30 – Hyperscaler Plans for 50% Internal Chip Usage.
27:40 – Falling GPU Rental Prices – A Canary in the Coal Mine?
32:20 – Nvidia’s Competitive Moat – Can CUDA & Networking Defend Its Lead?
38:00 – China’s Role and Size as a Nvidia End User.
43:10 – AI Investment Cycle: Boom, Bust, or a Plateau?
48:45 – Valuation Insights – Can Nvidia Justify Its Price?
54:30 – Gil’s Variant View – Street Low EPS Estimates for 2026 CY
59:15 – Final Verdict: Is Nvidia As Good As It Gets?
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MORE EPISODES:
BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGx
ZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnuc
POOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0s
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Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com
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