Episode Description:

Welcome to another episode of Beyond Oil: The Rise of Critical Metals. Join us as Tom LaTourrette and Fabian Villalobos from RAND Corporation review their report on seabed mining, covering the drivers, study design focused on nodule extraction, and potential implications, especially concerning battery metal demand and China’s supply chain dominance. They also discuss seabed mining’s potential supply, barriers compared to terrestrial mining, impact on terrestrial mining income for some countries, geopolitical workshop findings, the US government’s limited influence in the ISA, and implications of the recent US executive order, culminating in recommendations for the US government.

Guests:

* Tom LaTourrette, Senior Physical Scientist at RAND, with expertise in energy, infrastructure, and public safety.

* Fabian Villalobos, Senior Researcher at the RAND Corporation, focused on US-China techno-economic competition, supply chains, the defense industrial base, and emerging technologies.

Host:

* Oliver Gunasekara, CEO & Co-Founder of Impossible Metals

Episode Timeline:

* Introduction to Seabed Mining (0:00 – 03:40)

* Study Design (03:40 – 07:55)

* Demand for Battery Metals and China’s Dominance (07:55 – 10:31)

* Seabed Mining’s Potential Supply and Barriers (10:31 – 19:11)

* Impact on Terrestrial Mining Income (19:11 – 21:47)

* Geopolitical Implications Workshop (21:47 – 30:57)

* US Government’s Limited Influence in ISA (30:57 – 32:27)

* Potential Implications of the Executive Order (32:27 – 36:26)

* Recommendations for the US Government (36:26 – 42:18)

* Q&A Session (42.18 – 1:08:06)

Key Takeaways:

* Introduction to RAND’s Seabed Mining Study: The RAND Corporation has been studying seabed mining and geopolitical implications, focusing on polymetallic nodule extraction and processing.

* Growing Demand for Critical Minerals: There’s a projected surge in demand for battery metals like nickel and cobalt by 2040, driven by the energy transition.

* China’s Dominance in Supply Chains: China currently holds a significant lead in the global supply chains for critical minerals, from mining to processing.

* Seabed Mining as a Supply Diversifier: Seabed mining could offer an alternative supply source for critical minerals, potentially reducing reliance on terrestrial mining and diversifying supply chains.

* Challenges and Uncertainties of Seabed Mining: The industry faces hurdles such as high infrastructure costs, regulatory complexities, public perception issues, and the need for new processing technologies for nodules.

* Potential Negative Impact on Terrestrial Mining Economies: Case studies suggest seabed mining could reduce income for nations like the DRC (Democratic Republic of the Congo) due to declining cobalt prices outweighing potential ISA royalty payments.

* Geopolitical Complexities and International Governance: The emergence of a seabed mining industry introduces potential geopolitical tensions, requiring careful diplomatic engagement and monitoring of international institutions like the International Seabed Authority (ISA).

* US Government’s Role and Recommendations: The US government, despite not being an ISA member, needs to strategically engage with allies, clarify policies, and invest in research and mapping to navigate the evolving landscape of seabed mining.

Links/Resources Mentioned

Rand research paper overviewImpossible Metals website

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