In this episode, Adam uses March Madness to break down a lesson every financial advisor can appreciate: most people want to win, but very few are willing to prepare to win. Using the NCAA tournament as a framework, he shows why excitement, prediction, and long-shot thinking often lead people in the wrong direction. Whether they’re filling out a bracket or building a retirement portfolio.

This is a sharp, practical episode about probabilities, discipline, momentum, and why higher-probability decisions matter more than getting lucky once. For advisors and investors alike, the message is clear: sustainable outcomes are built on process, not prediction.

Episode Timestamps:

00:00 – March Madness, busted brackets, and why people still play anyway 01:00 – Seeding, probabilities, and why the higher-ranked teams usually win 02:00 – The data behind top seeds, championship trends, and bracket reality 03:00 – What bracket strategy teaches us about investing discipline 04:00 – Why people chase Cinderella stories and ignore the real drivers of outcomes 05:00 – Trend following vs. trend predicting in portfolio management 06:00 – Building retirement portfolios on probabilities instead of surprises 07:00 – Final takeaway: retirement isn’t a game, and discipline matters

Key Takeaways:

💡 Most people are drawn to exciting long shots, but outcomes are usually driven by high-probability decisions, not unlikely upsets.

💡 In both brackets and portfolios, discipline beats prediction. Adam emphasizes the importance of following strength, momentum, and repeatable processes instead of trying to guess what will happen next.

💡 A winning retirement strategy should not be built around “Cinderella stories.” It should be built around probabilities, trend strength, and intentional decision-making over time.

Key Quotes:

🗣 “Most people have the will to win, but few have the will to prepare to win.”

🗣 “We are trend followers, not trend predictors.”

🗣 “We don’t build portfolios on surprises. We build them on probabilities and repeatable outcomes.”

🗣 “Retirement isn’t a game.”

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