Julie Miecamp, Deputy Global Head of Editorial at Octus, opens the episode by framing a European private credit market bracing for a software reset, a refinancing wall building toward 2028, and a higher-for-longer rate environment that’s quietly rewritten the playbook. The real risk, she notes, isn’t the one everyone’s arguing about. She then hands off to Lucia Camblor, Deputy Head of Private Credit and Deal Origination at Octus, in conversation with Mathew Cestar, President at Arini.

Two decades into building leverage finance at Credit Suisse and advising ICG‘s leadership, Cestar walks through why Arini exited software lending 18 to 24 months ago, well ahead of the reset now forcing the industry to explain itself (04:19), why the nearer-term threat to tech-heavy portfolios is cost of capital rather than AI disruption (08:49), and why years of pent-up restructuring in private markets are still working their way through the system (14:43). He pushes back on the assumption that scale equals safety in large-cap direct lending (17:10), makes the case for pan-European diversification over single-country concentration (19:04), and closes with why sponsorless lending, ABF, real estate credit, and infrastructure are the next legs of European debanking (27:04).

A conversation with a practitioner who has spent the full cycle inside European credit and isn’t interested in the panel version of the story.

Closing Credits
—-more—-
Hosted by Julie Miecamp.
Guest Interviewer: Lucia Camblor, Deputy Head of Private Credit and Deal Origination, EMEA, Octus.
Guest: Mathew Cestar, President, Arini.
Produced by Tanya Hubbard.
A Production of The Octus Podcast Network

• (00:00) – Introduction from Julie Miecamp
• (02:33) – Lucia Camblor introduces Mathew Cestar
• (03:08) – The state of European private credit after the GFC
• (04:19) – Software concentration, the SaaS reset, and why Arini exited early
• (08:49) – Rate environment, refinancing wall, and the energy overhang
• (14:43) – Default rates, the public-private feedback loop, and pent-up stress
• (17:10) – Where the risk sits: lenders versus sponsors
• (19:04) – LP rebalancing away from US concentration into Europe
• (23:17) – Banks versus private credit as a symbiotic ecosystem
• (24:44) – Sponsorless lending and the Lazard partnership
• (27:04) – Capital rotation into infrastructure and the debanking theme
• (30:33) – Secondaries, continuation funds, and market maturation
• (32:06) – Rapid-fire and wrap