In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, brothers Tom Dosch and Tim Dosch talk about a rough week for real estate. The 10-year Treasury jumped above 5.2% in a single day, oil is hovering near $100 amid tensions with Iran, and the Fed is raising rates. They break down what all of this means for land sellers, developers, and investors across Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Austin, and whether the market is heading into a new downturn or reaching the floor of the next cycle.

They then dive into how the land market is actually adjusting. In Houston, sellers are offering long closing extensions. In DFW, some sellers who held firm on price and timing are now walking away from deals at roughly 50% haircuts. Tom and Tim also compare the sharp move in rates to 2007 and 2022, explain why land takes longer to reprice even when investment sales move quickly, and share why Tim believes this could be the beginning of a new boom cycle.

The second half takes a deep dive into multifamily oversupply in the suburbs, the return of urban and infill deals, and a struggling consumer. They also look at the resurgence of infill office in Houston and the possibility of an Austin comeback. Tim breaks down the wall of commercial real estate debt maturities, while both hosts explain why they are cautious about land debt.

They wrap by looking at AI as an economic driver, efforts to regulate robotaxis, and the data center boom that has helped make industrial one of the hottest asset classes in Texas. This is part one of a two-part conversation, with the second half coming next week.

Key Takeaways

• The 10-year Treasury spiked above 5.2%, causing immediate pressure on investment sales and cap rates.

• Land is the first to adjust in a downturn, and in Houston that means sellers offering 6- to 12-month extensions.

• In DFW, sellers holding firm are getting squeezed, and some land deals are trading at 50% discounts.

• The economy is K-shaped, with AI and data centers driving real GDP growth while many consumers struggle.

• Construction costs are rising for steel and concrete due to data center and infrastructure demand.

• $865 billion in commercial real estate debt matures in 2026, and another $645 billion in 2027, much of it at higher rates.

• AI is transformational but faces a likely market correction due to debt and liability concerns.

• Regulation and financial interests are shaping the AI debate, including opposition to robotaxis.

• Data centers are driving industrial absorption and creating high-paying jobs in Texas.

• The next 6 to 18 months will be a critical window for establishing a market floor.

• Texas land remains bullish long term due to population growth and economic diversification.

In This Episode:

• [00:00] Intro

• [00:40] A ”horror movie” week: the 10-year runs above 5.2%

• [02:09] Oil, Iran, the Fed, and whether this is an inflection point

• [08:14] Houston: sellers extending closings into 2027

• [09:04] DFW: sellers holding firm, land debt, and 50% haircuts

• [13:31] Five years since the 2021 peak: ”Glad we didn't win that deal”

• [17:16] Tim's view: the floor is forming and a new cycle is starting

• [22:07] Data centers, TerraFab, steel and concrete, and a K-shaped economy

• [28:03] PFC/HFC deals and the oversupply ripple in North DFW

• [39:41] $865B in 2026 maturities and the refinancing wall

• [43:12] Land debt, rising basis, and why not to throw good money after bad

• [45:02] AI: bubble risk, liability, and regulation

• [48:28] Robotaxis, Waymo, and who benefits from the fear

• [52:31] Wrap-up and a preview of part two 

Resources and Links

Podcast

• https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/welcome-to-the-texas-land-guys-podcast-the-art/id1788566687?i=1000682586353

• https://dmre.com/

Tim Dosch

• https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-dosch-67a07899

• https://dmre.com/

• https://ascentinv.com/

• https://100xharvest.org/

Tom Dosch

• https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/

• https://dmre.com/

• https://ascentinv.com/

• https://100xharvest.org/