In this week’s edition of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we turned our attention to one country that rarely gets the scrutiny it deserves: Turkmenistan. Despite its strategic location, vast gas reserves, and sensitive position between Iran, Afghanistan, and the rest of Central Asia, it remains one of the hardest states in the region to read clearly. Access is limited, reporting is constrained, and much of what emerges does so in fragments.

To help make sense of that opacity, this episode brought together two guests with sharply different but complementary perspectives. Galiya Ibragimova, an expert on Central Asia and Eastern Europe and a contributor to Carnegie Politika, discussed the strange and still unresolved power arrangement at the top of the Turkmen state. Since Serdar Berdymukhamedov formally became president in March 2022, his father Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, widely known as Arkadag, has remained a central political force, raising obvious questions about who really governs and how stable that balance is.

The conversation also examined the external pressures shaping Turkmenistan’s options. Heavy dependence on gas exports to China, the uncertain prospects of alternative routes, and the fallout from instability in Iran and Afghanistan all leave Ashgabat exposed. Galiya walked through the recent and rather extraordinary episode of Arkadag’s trip to Florida, using it as a window into elite dynamics and the father-son relationship at the top of the regime.

But the episode did not stay at the level of palace intrigue. Aynabat Yaylymova, founder of Saglyk and Progres Foundation, brought the discussion back to the realities of daily life inside Turkmenistan: corruption, weak institutions, poor access to healthcare, rising food prices, information controls, and the growing pressure on household budgets. Beyond the rumours surrounding intra-elite tensions, she argued, the more important fact is that ordinary Turkmens continue to pay the price for misrule.

The result is a conversation that tries to connect the opaque politics of the Turkmen elite with the far more tangible pressures experienced by people on the ground.

LINKS

* Progres Foundation – https://progres.online/

* Saglyk – https://saglyk.org/

* Galiya Ibragimova’s author page at Carnegie Politika – https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/people/galiya-ibragimova

* Galiya Ibragimova’s article on the Serdar-Gurbanguly power struggle and the Florida episode – https://www.hronikatm.com/2026/04/serdar-vs-arkadag-who-controls-turkmenistan/

* Galiya Ibragimova’s article on Turkmen gas exports and the fallout from the war in Iran – https://www.hronikatm.com/2026/03/pressurized-gas-how-the-wars-surrounding-turkmenistan-are-affecting-gas-exports/

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